In this article we explain why you may see less (or more!) purchase results inside the Facebook ads manager than you do inside Cometly's interface.
Facebook is estimating your conversion results using "Statistical Modeling"
Due to the recent iOS update, Facebook cannot report any conversion details on iOS users who have "opted-out" of tracking. Over 85% of Facebook users worldwide have "opted-out" of tracking via iOS.
As a result of not being able to report any conversion data on 85% of their users, Facebook has developed a new attribution model that they are calling "Statistical Modeling" as a means of populating your ads manager with any data that they can.
What does "Statistical Modeling" mean?
Statistical Modeling means that over 85% of the conversion data is estimated. Which is really just a nice way of saying that the data is made up. They even tell you that their data is estimated, as shown in the screenshot below.
Here is a link to the full article on Facebook's website about how they use statistical modeling.
The affects of statistical modeling are different for every ad account, here are some more helpful articles for explaining how it may be affecting your ad account. In some cases Facebook will under report your conversion data, in other cases Facebook will over report your conversion data. If you are seeing more sales reported on Facebook than on Cometly, check out this article.
This statistical modeling makes it nearly impossible to scale your ads and increase your ROAS because you could be turning off winning ads, ands scaling up losing ads!
With Cometly, you can finally trust that you are scaling the right ads again 😎
We hope this explanation helps! If you have any questions please reach out to firstname.lastname@example.org